Updated
UK SEAT PROJECTION · 30 AUGUST 2026
Labour would be largest
on 319 seats - 7 short of 326.
This is a uniform-swing scenario built from the Road to 326 seven-poll average. It is not a probability, MRP forecast, official result or guarantee.
DIRECT ANSWER
No party reaches a majority in this scenario
The largest modelled party has 319 of 650 seats. A working Commons majority normally requires 326 seats, although the practical parliamentary position can differ because of the Speaker, abstentionist MPs and vacancies.
MODEL
How the estimate is produced
Each party's change from its 2024 Great Britain vote share is applied equally to every Great Britain constituency. Northern Ireland stays at its 2024 result.
The model does not fully account for tactical voting, incumbency, local candidates, demographic change, constituency polling, campaign effects or uncertainty.
SCOPE
Northern Ireland is kept separate
Great Britain national voting-intention polls do not measure Northern Ireland's distinct party system. Its 18 seats therefore remain at the 2024 result in this simple scenario.