COMMONS BALANCE
340Labour seats340326 majority
0650 seats
Updated
UK SEAT PROJECTION · 22 OCTOBER 2026
Latest polling would put Labour on 340 seats.
That would give Labour a projected Commons majority of 30.
Seven-poll average
LAB 27.3%REF 22.0%CON 21.6%LD 10.0%GRN 8.9%
Labour majority
340 projected seats
326 seats required
Compared with 2024
0.16 point margin →
THE FULL PROJECTION
Every party, one clear view.
Seat totals are modelled from the latest seven national polls. The change column compares this projection with the 2024 general election.
LabourLAB
340-71
ConservativeCON
146+25
Liberal DemocratsLD
720
Reform UKREF
40+35
Northern Ireland partiesNI
180
Other / independentOTH
14+8
SNPSNP
12+3
GreenGRN
40
Plaid CymruPC
40
READING THE MODEL
Useful signal, with clear limits.
This is a polling-based electoral scenario. It is not a probability, MRP forecast, official result or guarantee.
How it works
Each party's change from its 2024 Great Britain vote share is applied equally to every Great Britain constituency. Northern Ireland stays at its 2024 result.
Read the full methodology →What can move it
Tactical voting, incumbency, local candidates, campaign effects and constituency-specific opinion can all produce a different result.
See the polls behind it →Northern Ireland
Great Britain polls do not measure Northern Ireland's distinct party system, so its 18 seats remain at the 2024 result here.
Download the model data →