UK POLLING NEWS · UPDATED DAILY
Follow the latest polling releases, public-opinion research and political stories shaping party support. Every item links to its source; the neutral summaries and impact scores are Road to 326 analysis.
HOW TO READ THE SCORE
Likely short-term reputational effect, from strong headwind to strong tailwind. It is our classification, not a poll result.
PARTY IMPACT
Net signal points add the −2 to +2 scores on stories in this period. More coverage can create a larger total, so read this beside the story count - not as a vote-share forecast.
THEMES TO WATCH
Labour's Makerfield win began a measurable recovery that now appears across several polling series. Deltapoll, More in Common and Find Out Now put Labour ahead, while YouGov has Labour and Reform level, so the scale and durability of the change remain uncertain.
9 linked sources in the archiveInflation and living costs remain central concerns, particularly among younger adults. Voters want visible progress soon, leaving the government exposed if improved economic figures are not felt in daily life.
3 linked sources in the archiveDeltapoll, More in Common and Find Out Now show Labour leads, while YouGov has Labour and Reform level. More in Common places the Conservatives narrowly above Reform, and stronger smaller-party shares keep the field fragmented.
9 linked sources in the archiveROLLING 90-DAY ARCHIVE
AP reports that Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne each donated £36 million to Reform UK. The Liberal Democrats called for donation limits. The contributions increase the party's resources while renewing debate over political funding; the report does not establish an effect on voting intention.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Additional resources and scrutiny pull in different directions; an electoral impact has not been established.
Opinium's 9-11 September survey puts Labour on 27%, Reform on 25%, the Conservatives on 19%, the Greens on 11% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%. Compared with its previous survey, Labour is down one point and Reform is up one. These are individual poll results, not seat forecasts.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour retains a narrow lead, but a one-point movement in one survey does not establish a wider shift.
Reform's one-point rise narrows this poll's gap without establishing a wider trend.
The Green Party announced that local members selected Zack Polanski on 10 September to contest Holborn and St Pancras. The parliamentary by-election is scheduled for 8 October. Selection confirms the party's intended candidate, not the final ballot or an expected result.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The selection confirms a high-profile candidacy but provides no evidence of its effect on local vote shares.
The government says the UK will contribute £100 million through NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List for Patriot missiles and other air-defence equipment before winter. It also says Britain will supply artillery rounds and drones, with 25,000 of a planned 120,000 drones delivered so far this year.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The package demonstrates continued support for Ukraine, but the official announcement provides no evidence yet of an electoral effect.
The government has launched a national space strategy backed by £7.8 billion to 2030. It combines plans for satellite communications, in-orbit servicing and manufacturing, space-domain awareness and assured access to space, alongside proposed liability and insurance reforms for operators.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The strategy gives the government a substantial industrial and security announcement, but delivery and its electoral effect are not yet established.
A joint foreign-ministers' statement says the UK, France and Canada will bring forward national measures to ban trade in settlement goods. It links the proposed action to protecting a two-state solution and opposing settlement expansion. The statement is a policy commitment, not confirmation that every measure is already in force.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
This is a substantive foreign-policy commitment, but the statement contains no evidence of an electoral effect.
Reform UK says a future government would declare a national emergency and pursue a package of measures within its first 100 days, including its small-boats policy, a £250 energy-bill reduction, expanded domestic NHS training and changes to tax, welfare and university funding. The page also proposes institutional steps if Parliament, courts or the Civil Service impede the programme.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The programme gives Reform a broad governing agenda, but its costs, legal route, implementation and short-term effect on voter support are not yet established.
Euronews reports that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and France's National Rally president Jordan Bardella signed a memorandum at Reform's conference. It proposes returning small-boat arrivals to France if both parties form governments, making the agreement conditional on future election results in both countries.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The agreement gives Reform a prominent immigration-policy announcement, but its implementation depends on both parties winning office and its short-term electoral effect is uncertain.
The Guardian reports that Reform UK has opened an internal investigation and that head of policy James Orr and senior adviser Dan Jukes have stepped aside after a Channel 4 undercover report alleged attempts to circumvent political-donation rules. Reform denies wrongdoing and describes the operation as a hoax.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The allegations and departure of two senior officials create a short-term reputational headwind, while the facts remain disputed and under investigation.
Find Out Now's 2 September poll of 2,280 Great Britain adults puts Labour on 26%, Reform UK on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%. The Greens are on 14%, the Liberal Democrats on 10%, the SNP on 3%, Plaid Cymru on 1% and other parties on 6%.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour leads this Find Out Now series for the first time since January 2025, adding to evidence of a recovery.
Reform is five points behind Labour in a pollster that had previously tended to record stronger Reform support.
The Conservatives remain close to Reform but are six points behind Labour in this poll.
The Greens rise to 14%, placing them six points behind the Conservatives in a fragmented field.
The Liberal Democrats remain on 10%, without a clear short-term movement in this series.
The government says the UK and France are expanding joint action against small-boat crossings, including 45 additional officers on western French beaches, a larger intelligence and judicial unit and a 75-officer specialist unit in northern France. The announcement precedes talks between Andy Burnham and Emmanuel Macron on migration, Ukraine and economic cooperation.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The announcement expands cross-border enforcement activity, but its operational and political effects are not yet established.
The Cabinet Office has announced three cross-government taskforces covering the cost of living, public control of housing, water, energy and transport, and community renewal. First Secretary of State Louise Haigh will lead the work through the new Office of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The taskforces define new government priorities, but their policies, funding and measurable outcomes have not yet been established.
The government says it has asked the Electoral Commission to widen its review of campaign spending limits and is developing a residency test for large political donors. Its Representation of the People Bill measures also include a £100,000 annual cap for overseas electors, a cryptocurrency-donation ban and tighter company-donation rules.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The measures advance a government election-integrity programme, but their implementation and political effect remain uncertain.
YouGov's 31 August-1 September poll of 2,244 Great Britain adults puts Labour and Reform UK level on 23%, with the Conservatives on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%. All movements from the previous YouGov wave are within normal sampling variation.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour rises one point in this series and is level with Reform, but the movement is within normal sampling variation.
Reform is unchanged and remains level with Labour, without a statistically clear lead.
The Conservatives are unchanged on 20%, three points behind both Labour and Reform.
The Greens are unchanged on 13%, continuing their recent YouGov range.
The Liberal Democrats fall one point to 12%, a movement within normal sampling variation.
More in Common's 28-31 August poll of 3,250 Great Britain adults puts Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 22%. The Liberal Democrats are on 11%, the Greens on 9% and Restore Britain on 4%.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A four-point lead over Reform is another positive result for Labour, although other current pollsters show a closer contest.
Reform is one point behind the Conservatives and four behind Labour in this pollster's latest reading.
The Conservatives are second on 23%, ahead of Reform but still three points behind Labour.
The Liberal Democrats remain in double figures without a statistically clear change in position.
The Greens remain on 9% in this series, indicating no clear short-term movement.
The Guardian reports that former prime minister Keir Starmer will stand down as Labour MP for Holborn and St Pancras after 11 years representing the constituency. His departure will create a parliamentary by-election, although an official polling date and candidate list have not yet been announced.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The resignation creates a new electoral test for Labour, but the date, candidates and public response are not yet known.
The Department for Education says free school meals now cover more than three million children in Universal Credit households, while 1,400 additional breakfast clubs and 9,000 school-based childcare places begin opening this term. New school food standards are due later in September.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The measures put a major government commitment into effect, but there is not yet evidence of a clear short-term change in public support.
Sky News reports that Kemi Badenoch has appointed Andrew Griffith as shadow chancellor, replacing Mel Stride, and moved Claire Coutinho from the energy brief to shadow business secretary. Tom Tugendhat has also replaced Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary as the Conservative reshuffle continues.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The reshuffle changes the party's senior economic and foreign-affairs team, but there is not yet evidence of a clear short-term effect on public support.
Sky News reports that Priti Patel and Stuart Andrew have left the Conservative shadow cabinet, following James Cleverly's departure to seek the party's 2028 London mayoral nomination. The moves leave Kemi Badenoch preparing a wider frontbench reshuffle.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Three senior departures create short-term uncertainty around the opposition frontbench before the planned reshuffle is completed.
More in Common's 21-23 August poll of 3,140 Great Britain adults puts Labour on 27%, Reform UK on 23% and the Conservatives on 22%. The Liberal Democrats are on 10%, the Greens on 9% and Restore Britain on 4%.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A four-point lead reinforces evidence of Labour's recovery, while remaining too narrow to establish a settled national advantage.
Reform falls two points in this series and is only one point ahead of the Conservatives.
A 22% share leaves the Conservatives one point behind Reform and within five points of Labour.
The Liberal Democrats remain in double figures but do not break out of the fragmented field.
The Greens hold at 9%, a solid reading that does not indicate a clear short-term shift.
Deltapoll's 21-24 August poll of 2,022 Great Britain adults puts Labour on 30%, Reform UK on 27% and the Conservatives on 20%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 8%, with the Labour lead still within normal sampling variation.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour reaches 30% and extends its numerical Deltapoll lead over Reform from two points to three.
Reform holds at 27% and remains competitive, although it trails Labour for a second consecutive Deltapoll release.
The Conservatives remain on 20%, seven points behind Reform and ten points behind Labour.
The Liberal Democrats stay on 8%, below their recent double-digit readings from several other pollsters.
The Greens stay on 8%, below their recent double-digit readings from several other pollsters.
YouGov's 23-24 August poll of 2,380 Great Britain adults puts Reform UK on 23%, Labour on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%. The Greens and Liberal Democrats are both on 13%, leaving the Reform lead well within normal sampling variation.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Reform retains a numerical lead, but a one-point margin over Labour is not a statistically clear advantage.
Labour remains within one point of the lead, leaving the party competitive without showing a decisive recovery.
A 20% reading puts the Conservatives within three points of Reform and narrows the gap to the leading pair.
The Greens remain on a strong 13%, well above their 2024 general-election vote share.
The Liberal Democrats reach 13% and draw level with the Greens in the fragmented national field.
The government has allocated £9.58bn to 33 partners outside London to support 73,600 social and affordable homes over ten years. Nearly two-thirds are expected to be for social rent, with a further £46m intended to strengthen council delivery capacity.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A funded first allocation gives Labour a concrete delivery claim on housing, although the long timetable means results will take time to judge.
Andy Burnham visited Kyiv on Ukrainian Independence Day for his first overseas trip as prime minister, reaffirming UK support and announcing approval for classified UK component information to support local assembly of SCALP missiles in Ukraine.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The visit projects continuity and international leadership, but the official announcement alone gives no evidence of an electoral effect.
Deltapoll's latest Great Britain voting-intention poll puts Labour on 29%, Reform UK on 27% and the Conservatives on 21%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 8%; the two-point Labour lead remains within the poll's margin of error.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour leads this poll and reaches its strongest share among the latest releases, while the narrow margin still cautions against over-reading it.
Reform remains close to Labour on 27%, so the result is competitive rather than a clear setback.
A 21% reading improves the Conservatives' position, although they remain six points behind Reform.
The Greens fall to 8% in this release, below most of their recent national readings.
The Liberal Democrats are also on 8%, leaving them behind their recent double-digit results.
A House of Lords Library briefing describes the Burnham government's programme as centred on devolution, local revenue powers and a smaller central state. It also notes that major fiscal details await the October budget and that opponents are questioning delivery, tax and ambition.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The agenda supplies a clearer governing programme, while the briefing also highlights unresolved fiscal and delivery questions.
Find Out Now's 19 August poll of 2,287 Great Britain adults puts Labour and Reform UK on 23% each, with Reform ahead by less than 0.05 percentage points before rounding. The Greens are on 14%, Conservatives 18% and Liberal Democrats 11%.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour is level with Reform after rounding, but neither party has a statistically meaningful advantage.
Reform retains a fractional unrounded edge while remaining effectively tied with Labour.
A 14% share is a strong national reading for the Greens and keeps the party firmly in the fragmented field.
The Conservatives sit five points behind both leading parties in this poll.
Survation's 18 August national poll puts Labour and Reform UK level on 26%, followed by the Conservatives on 18%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 10%, with Restore Britain on 2%.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour gains one point from Survation's previous reading and draws level with Reform, though the change is within normal sampling variation.
Reform holds its previous 26% share but no longer has a numerical lead over Labour in this series.
An 18% share leaves the Conservatives eight points behind both leading parties.
YouGov's latest Great Britain voting-intention reading puts Reform UK on 24%, Labour on 22% and the Conservatives on 19%. The Greens are on 13% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%, leaving no party close to majority territory.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Reform returns to a narrow lead in the latest YouGov reading, strengthening its claim to set the opposition agenda.
Labour slips behind Reform after leading the previous YouGov poll, showing that its recovery remains unsettled.
The Conservatives remain competitive but continue to sit in third place behind Reform and Labour.
A 13% reading keeps the Greens well above their 2024 general-election vote share.
The Liberal Democrats hold a solid double-digit share without breaking out of the fragmented field.
Road to 326 classifies the likely short-term reputational direction of each story from -2 to +2. The archive keeps a rolling 90 days of coverage. Scores are editorial summaries, not poll results, forecasts or endorsements. We keep headlines, links, dates and our own analysis only; article text remains with the publisher.
ABOUT THE COVERAGE
What this archive covers, how it is updated and how to read the editorial signals.
The archive covers national voting-intention polls, public-opinion research and political developments that may help explain changes in party support. Each item links to the original publisher.
Road to 326 checks for relevant new polling and public-opinion stories every day and keeps the latest 90 days in a searchable archive.
No. They are Road to 326 editorial classifications of likely short-term reputational impact. They do not measure vote share and should not be read as an election forecast.
The news page explains the stories and public-opinion research around politics. The polls tracker separately lists voting-intention surveys and calculates the seven-poll average.