PUBLIC OPINION IN THE NEWS
A daily view of the polls, issues and stories shaping party fortunes. We keep a rolling 90-day archive; every item links to its source and the summaries and impact scores are ours.
HOW TO READ THE SCORE
Likely short-term reputational effect, from strong headwind to strong tailwind. It is our classification, not a poll result.
PARTY IMPACT
Net signal points add the −2 to +2 scores on stories in this period. More coverage can create a larger total, so read this beside the story count - not as a vote-share forecast.
THEMES TO WATCH
The Makerfield result gave Labour a real electoral lift and later polls show voters warming to Andy Burnham. Labour has recovered ground, but early evidence repeatedly warns that the bounce is not yet secure.
6 linked sources in the archiveInflation and living costs remain central concerns, particularly among younger adults. Voters want visible progress soon, leaving the government exposed if improved economic figures are not felt in daily life.
4 linked sources in the archiveReform often leads voting intention, the Greens are strongest among young adults and Conservative leader ratings have improved. Yet voters remain sceptical about every party's readiness, keeping the field volatile.
6 linked sources in the archiveROLLING 90-DAY ARCHIVE
Farage returned to Parliament with 63% of the vote, but the major parties did not stand and AP cautions against treating the result as a national signal. The parliamentary standards inquiry resumed after his victory.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A clear personal win restores Farage to Parliament, although the atypical field limits the wider electoral meaning.
The pollster said Labour had reached its highest share in more than a year, while Reform remained narrowly ahead. Find Out Now explicitly warned that small week-to-week moves can be sampling noise.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
The direction is encouraging for Labour, but it still trails narrowly in this poll.
Reform retains the lead, although Labour's recovery has narrowed its advantage.
Ipsos found 48% preferred a Burnham-led Labour government to a Farage-led Reform government, but 62% still thought Britain was heading in the wrong direction. The NHS, cost of living and immigration led voters' stated priorities.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Labour gains a clear head-to-head advantage, tempered by weak ratings for the government and country direction.
Farage trails Burnham in the direct comparison and his favourability has deteriorated.
Kemi Badenoch's favourability improved markedly over the previous year, despite the party's broader challenges.
Labour led on 27%, with Reform on 23%, the Conservatives on 17%, and the Greens and Liberal Democrats both on 12%. Opinium linked part of Labour's improvement to voters returning from the Greens.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A first Opinium lead in 15 months and stronger leader ratings make this a substantial positive signal.
Reform falls behind Labour in this poll after a long period of leads.
A 17% share leaves the Conservatives clearly behind both Labour and Reform.
The analysis suggests Labour is recovering some voters who had moved to the Greens.
Forty-three per cent named immigration as an important issue, ahead of the economy, with the NHS and inflation joint third. Ipsos also found economic optimism remained deeply negative.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
High concern about immigration and the economy creates pressure on the governing party to show progress.
The prominence of an issue central to Reform's message is a likely agenda-setting advantage, not proof of vote gains.
A survey of 1,200 senior business decision makers placed Labour first on the economy, business and work. Respondents were split on Burnham's suitability as prime minister, while Farage remained polarising but personally competitive.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
Leading on economic and business policy strengthens Labour on a central area of competence.
Reform ranks second on several business measures and Farage remains personally competitive, though polarising.
The Conservatives lose ground on an issue area historically central to their pitch.
More in Common put Labour on 28%, Reform on 24%, the Conservatives on 22%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Greens on 8%. Both the pollster and the report stressed that this was one poll during a fast-moving leadership bounce.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
A clear lead and evidence of voters returning from both left and right make this a strong short-term positive.
Reform drops behind Labour amid negative coverage around its leader.
The Liberal Democrats rise one point in the reported tracker.
The Greens fall to their lowest reported share in months as Labour recovers support.
Ipsos found 76% worried about the personal impact of living costs and only 44% expected noticeable improvement within Labour's remaining term. Voters wanted evidence of progress much sooner than many believed it would arrive.
LIKELY PARTY IMPACT
As the governing party, Labour owns the delivery risk created by high anxiety and low confidence in improvement.
Road to 326 classifies the likely short-term reputational direction of each story from -2 to +2. The archive keeps a rolling 90 days of coverage. Scores are editorial summaries, not poll results, forecasts or endorsements. We keep headlines, links, dates and our own analysis only; article text remains with the publisher.