put Labour first
Updated
FORECAST CHECK · 19 AUG 2026
One election. Four very different answers.
Road to 326 is one estimate, not the answer. Here is how our seat projection compares with other poll-based models, a recent MRP and prediction markets.
WHERE THEY AGREE
0models show a majority
All four seat estimates put their largest party below 326.
Labour seats in the three rolling poll models
closest any model gets to 326
the shared headline across all four
650-SEAT COMPARISON
Four forecasts, one view
LabourLib DemGreenSNPOtherConservativeReform
OUR MODEL
Road to 326
LAB293LD75GRN5SNP17OTH38CON106REF116
Our latest seven-poll average applied to the 2024 result in every GB constituency.
Open our forecastEXTERNAL
PollCheck
LAB267LD73GRN6SNP29OTH38CON99REF138
A demographic regression model across 632 GB constituencies, with Northern Ireland held at its 2024 result.
View PollCheck sourceEXTERNAL
Electoral Calculus
LAB244LD70GRN10SNP44OTH23CON132REF127
A constituency model using polling from 7-27 July, including an adjustment for tactical voting.
View Electoral Calculus sourceEXTERNAL
More in Common
LAB110LD66GRN10SNP37OTH38CON96REF293
A 14,358-person MRP completed before the more recent movement towards Labour in July and August.
View More in Common sourceWHAT TRADERS THINK
Markets tell a different story
Market prices move continuously. They reflect traders and contract wording, not representative public opinion.
PREDICTION MARKET
$223.9k volumeKalshi
Which party will win the most seats at the next UK general election?
Reform39%
Labour30%
Conservative15%
PREDICTION MARKET
$821.4k volumePolymarket
When will the next UK election be called?
15%By 31 Dec 2026
30%By 30 Jun 2027
Market prices last checked 19 Aug 2026. They can change quickly, are not polls and are not financial advice.
LATEST POLL CHECK
YouGov has Reform one point ahead
REF 24%LAB 22%CON 19%
YouGov’s 16-17 August voting-intention poll measures national support, not seats. It is one of the seven polls in our current average.
Read the YouGov releaseHOW TO USE THIS PAGE
Look for agreement, not false precision.
Polls measure vote intention. They estimate national support at one moment and always carry sampling and methodological uncertainty.
Seat models translate votes into constituencies. Small choices about geography, tactical voting and local candidates can move dozens of seats.
Markets price a contract. They can be useful signals, but they answer a specific question and are shaped by who trades and how much money is present.