WESTMINSTER BY-ELECTIONS · SINCE JULY 2024
Every by-election in this Parliament
Every parliamentary by-election in the current Parliament, with the official numbers and a simple judgement: expected, surprising, or somewhere in between.
LATEST RESULT
Clacton
Nigel Farage · Reform UK
63.3%| Date and seat | Winner | Top two | Turnout | Was it a surprise? | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClactonEngland · Reform UK hold | REFNigel Farage36.6 point lead | REF63.3%+17.1 OTH26.7% | 44.0%turnout | Expected The mainstream parties did not stand, leaving Farage overwhelmingly likely to regain the seat he had resigned. | The 63% share looks emphatic, but the unusual field makes this a poor guide to a normal general-election contest. The more useful signal is that over a quarter backed a protest candidate. AP News and UK Parliament ↗ |
| MakerfieldEngland · Labour hold | LABAndy Burnham9,231 majority | LAB54.8%+9.6 REF34.5%+2.7 | 58.7%turnout | Stronger than expected Labour was expected to be competitive with Burnham as candidate; winning by more than 20 points made the hold much more decisive. | A high-profile candidate can still rebuild Labour's coalition in a Reform-facing northern seat. Reform's 34.5% confirms its strength, but also shows a ceiling when Labour consolidates its vote. UK Parliament ↗ |
| Aberdeen SouthScotland · Conservative gain from SNP | CONDouglas Lumsden6,050 majority | CON49.5%+25.1 SNP28.6%−4.2 | 38.0%turnout | Surprise gain The Conservatives overturned an SNP majority and increased their vote share by 25 points, winning by a margin few national polls would have implied. | The result is a reminder that Scotland does not move in lockstep with GB polling. A concentrated anti-SNP vote and strong local candidate can still produce a large Conservative win. UK Parliament ↗ |
| Arbroath & Broughty FerryScotland · SNP hold | SNPLara Bird5,278 majority | SNP41.2%+6.0 CON19.0%+3.5 | 31.3%turnout | Expected hold The SNP entered as the incumbent and converted a narrow 2024 win into a comfortable hold in a low-turnout contest. | Reform rose sharply but finished just behind the Conservatives. The split on the right helped the SNP widen its lead, showing how fragmented opposition can protect an incumbent. UK Parliament ↗ |
| Gorton & DentonEngland · Green gain from Labour | GRNHannah Spencer4,402 majority | GRN40.7%+27.4 REF28.7%+14.6 | 47.5%turnout | Major surprise The Greens gained a long-held Labour seat with a 27-point rise while Labour fell from first to third. | Labour can be squeezed from both directions in the same seat. The Greens consolidated progressive voters while Reform took much of the anti-establishment vote. UK Parliament ↗ |
| Runcorn & HelsbyEngland · Reform UK gain from Labour | REFSarah Pochin6 majority | REF38.7%+20.5 LAB38.7%−14.3 | 46.2%turnout | Major surprise Reform overturned Labour's large 2024 majority and won by only six votes after a recount. | The result proved Reform could convert national support into a Westminster gain. The six-vote margin also warns against reading a single knife-edge contest as a settled realignment. UK Parliament ↗ |
Result figures come from UK Parliament or the relevant returning officer. Expected-versus-surprise labels and trend notes are Road to 326 editorial judgements, based on the previous result, vote-share movement and the circumstances of each contest; they are not probabilities or official classifications.
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