01 / POLL RECORDS
Included national voting-intention polls
The archive contains Great Britain general-election voting-intention polls from 3 January 2023 onwards. Bulk records through the Election Data Vault coverage date are reused under that project's express permission for commercial and other use. Later additions are checked against and linked to the publishing pollster.
Figures are recorded as published. Road to 326 does not reweight individual polls, impute a missing party figure or treat a poll as an election result. MRP studies are labelled and kept distinct from ordinary national polling where relevant.
02 / AVERAGE
Seven polls, equal weight
Unweighted trailing average of the seven most recent Great Britain voting-intention polls; missing party values are omitted. If a poll omits a party, that poll is omitted only from that party's denominator. The series is recalculated when a verified poll is added or corrected.
This is intentionally simple. It does not adjust for pollster house effects, sample mode, recency within the seven-poll window or historical pollster performance.
03 / SEAT SCENARIO
Uniform national change, constituency by constituency
Each party's change from its 2024 Great Britain vote share is applied equally to every Great Britain constituency. Northern Ireland stays at its 2024 result.
Negative projected shares are floored at zero and all remaining party shares in that constituency are normalised back to 100%. The party with the largest adjusted share is shown as the modelled winner.
The method does not fully model tactical voting, local candidates, incumbency, demographic change, constituency polling, differential national swing, campaign effects or uncertainty. It is not an MRP model.
04 / GEOGRAPHY
Constituency boundaries are for display
The interactive map uses the 650 Westminster parliamentary constituency geography used for the 2024 general election. Geometry is simplified for browser display and must not be used for legal, surveying or navigation purposes.
Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2024.
05 / OTHER TOOLS
Keep editorial judgement labelled
Compass: question weights and party reference profiles are editorial estimates based mainly on 2024 manifestos. Results are educational summaries, not voting advice.
News signals: summaries and party-impact classifications are original Road to 326 editorial judgements attached to linked third-party reporting. They are not polling findings.
Forecast comparison: Road to 326 reproduces only limited headline facts needed for comparison, with the publisher, date and source link clearly identified. Full constituency tables, datasets, ranges, charts and methodology remain at the publisher's source.
06 / LICENSING
Source rights remain with the source
- UK Election Data Vault ↗: bulk election and polling data; its publisher states that the data is free to use for commercial or any other purpose.
- Office for National Statistics digital boundaries ↗: supplied under the Open Government Licence with ONS and OS/Crown attribution.
- YouGov public data licence ↗: the archive uses limited headline figures for non-commercial editorial comparison. Source: YouGov plc, 2023-2026, © All rights reserved. Each displayed poll links to its original release.
- Other newer polls: factual headline figures are shown with a direct source link and pollster identification; no questionnaire, report text, branding asset or proprietary database is republished.