2024 result
Labour won Ayrshire North and Arran in the 2024 general election with 39.8%. The baseline below aggregates minor parties into Other.
Updated
2024 RESULT & CURRENT SCENARIO · 30 AUGUST 2026
Ayrshire North and Arran election result and projection
2024: Labour · Current model: Labour
Modelled winning share31.5%
This is not a constituency poll. It is the output of Road to 326's national uniform-swing model and can be wrong for local reasons.
Current projection
Labour is the largest party in this modelled scenario, on 31.5% after adjustment and normalisation.
Modelled margin
Labour leads SNP by 0.6 points in this scenario. That is not a confidence interval.
2024 RESULT AND CURRENT SCENARIO
The numbers behind this page
Actual 2024 shares come from the reusable Election Data Vault results. Projected shares are Road to 326 calculations.
| Party | 2024 share | Modelled share | Modelled change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.8% | 31.5% | -8.3 |
| SNP | 31.4% | 30.9% | -0.5 |
| Reform UK | 8.1% | 18.1% | +10.0 |
| Conservative | 14.1% | 9.4% | -4.7 |
| Green | 3.1% | 6.1% | +3.0 |
| Restore Britain | 0.0% | 3.0% | +3.0 |
| Other / independent | 1.1% | 0.7% | -0.4 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 0.3% | +0.3 |
METHOD
How this seat is calculated
Each party's change from its 2024 Great Britain vote share is applied equally to every Great Britain constituency. Northern Ireland stays at its 2024 result.
Negative values are floored at zero and party shares are normalised to total 100%. The largest adjusted share is displayed as the modelled winner.
SOURCE
Reusable election data, original calculation
The 2024 constituency baseline comes from the UK Election Data Vault ↗, whose publisher permits commercial and other reuse. The projection itself is an original Road to 326 calculation. Candidate names are deliberately omitted because this scenario models parties, not future nominations.